Public Lab Research note

[reference] "Carbon Bombs" or "Climate Bombs" --EcoFys analysis for Greenpeace

by eustatic | January 13, 2016 03:24 13 Jan 03:24 | #12580 | #12580

During the Open hour on COP21, there was mention of the term "Carbon Bomb" and discussion of an EcoFys report ("Point of No Return") on 14 industrial projects most likely (in 2013) to disrupt the Climate by increasing industrial carbon emissions by 2020--in some cases, the carbon emissions potential for any one of the projects exceeds the carbon budget for the entire planet (565 MT by 2015, according to Carbon Tracker).

This report informs much climate activism, especially from Greenpeace. Commissioned by Greenpeace, it attempts to rank the most dangerous fossil-fuel projects currently being planned. The metric is simple: how many additional tons of CO2 the project will emit by 2020. (See the report for more on methodology.)



Voohar and Myllyvirta, 2013. Point of No Return: The massive climate threats we must avoid. Greenpeace International, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, January 2013

Written by:
Ria Voorhar & Lauri Myllyvirta
Edited by:
Brian Blomme, Steve Erwood, Xiaozi Liu, Nina Schulz, Stephanie Tunmore, James Turner

Published in January 2013 by
Greenpeace International
Ottho Heldringstraat 5
1066 AZ Amsterdam
The Netherlands

News Coverage

Grist Guardian

Qua the Gulf Coast --US's island nation, internally colonized

Louisiana needs "1.5 to survive" --the state is already experiencing population dislocation. Louisiana is also politically dominated by companies involved with several of the projects. The US is involved with 5 of the projects. The supply chains of these projects touch Louisiana and Texas.

GOM Offshore Directly. Here's how it ranks among a dirty dozen of climate wrecking projects:

China’s Western provinces / Coal mining expansion / 1,400
Australia / Coal export expansion / 760
Arctic / Drilling for oil and gas / 520 (dead 2015?)
Indonesia / Coal export expansion / 460
5. United States / Coal export expansion / 420 (limited in 2015)
Canada / Tar sands oil / 420
( Oil trains through wetlands in Pass Manchac, Valero Refinery in NORCO, waste processing at Shell / IMTT, waste Pet Coke goes to IMT and UBT )
Iraq / Oil drilling / 420
8. Gulf of Mexico / Deepwater oil drilling / 350
Brazil / Deepwater oil drilling (pre-salt) / 330
Kazakhstan / Oil drilling / 290
11. United States / Shale gas / 280
Africa / Gas drilling / 260
Caspian Sea / Gas drilling / 240
Venezuela / Tar sands oil / 190 (see other tar sands)


Note: this report contrasts with the Nature letter by Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins

FiverthirtyEight graphic:

"For their Nature paper, Christophe McGlade and Paul Ekins, researchers at University College London’s Institute for Sustainable Resources, made the calculations using a model that assessed the global energy system. The model is split into 16 different regions, which have certain energy demands — everything from heating homes to automobile transport to steel production. The model projects those anticipated energy needs into the future and then aims to find the cheapest way of satisfying them, McGlade said. “The model has to meet energy demands, but it also needs to meet the 2-degrees limit, and so it works out which of the reserves and resources in each region are optimal to use.”
"The calculations show that some large reserves simply shouldn’t be tapped. For instance, essentially all Arctic oil reserves and 99 percent of Canadian oil sands are rated as unburnable under the model, a calculation that will surely give ammunition to those opposing the Keystone pipeline. More than half the world’s unburnable oil lies in the Middle East, but the model shows that the region could exploit more than 60 percent of its reserves without blowing the global carbon budget. The U.S. and Europe have the greatest flexibility to extract its reserves and remain within budget, in part because their proximity to energy users makes it more economical."

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"Gulf of Mexico: plans for new deepwater oil drilling would produce 2.1 million barrels of oil a day in 2016, adding 350 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, equivalent to the emissions of France in 2010."

also, data

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